September U.S. auto sales

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UPDATED: 10/2/2018 10:13 am ET

US sales at FCA US rose last year by 15 percent to 199,819, after stronger results for the Jeep and Ram brands.

The company said deliveries were up 14 percent in Jeep, 9 percent in Aries and 41 percent in Dodge. The volume dropped by 7 percent at the Chrysler brand and fell by 46 percent at Fiat.

FCA said retail sales were 149,713 units and the fleet 25% of the total volume last month.

The turnover of Ford Motor Co. in the US, 11 percent fell in September, following a continuing slump in the car industry and lower volumes for light trucks.

Deliveries dropped 11 percent for the Ford division and 7.2 percent for Lincoln, the company said.

Ford said the demand for cars fell by 9.9 percent and SUV / crossover sales dropped by 2.7 percent, while car shipments slipped 26 percent in September. The American car sales of Ford Motor Co. have declined 17 percent this year as the company prepares to stop most sedans under the Ford brand in North America.

According to Ford, retail volume has dropped by 13 percent and fleet shipments have fallen by 6.7 last month.

At Toyota Motor Corp. the volume fell by 10 percent last month, with car sales down 25 percent and demand for light trucks fell 0.3 percent. Sales at the Toyota division fell 11 percent and Lexus lost 6.1 percent.

Sales of Nissan Motor Co. in September it fell by 12 percent, while car deliveries plummeted by 36 percent and the volume of light trucks increased by 6.6 percent. Sales fell by 13 percent for the Nissan brand and 1.5 percent at Infiniti.

After other car manufacturers would report their results later today, American light commercial sales would be about 7 percent below the September 2017 level when sales peaked when consumers swapped vehicles that were destroyed by Hurricane Harvey.

But by a different measure the numbers will look stronger. Seasonal adjusted annual sales are expected to exceed 17 million for the seventh time this year after two months below that level. The forecast is based on nine analysts questioned by Bloomberg News.

US sales increased by 1.3 percent to August after a better than expected first half-year, partly as a result of a boost from the US tax reform. The SAAR decrease in July and August was seen as a sign that a delay of the second half predicted by analysts is unfolding.

The SAAR of September 2018 amounted to 18.2 million, the strongest month of the year.

Outlook for the industry

While the US economy and employment continue to grow and consumer confidence remains high, rising interest rates and high petrol prices are expected to dampen consumer demand. Increasing stocks of recently used vehicles and rising prices for new vehicles also put downward pressure on sales of new cars and light trucks.

"There is no doubt that the Fed's actions will affect car buyers this year," said Jonathan Smoke, chief economist at Cox Automotive, last week after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the third year in March. "It will not be better for consumers or the industry from here."

Rook said the seven rate hikes by the Fed in the past 22 months have already shifted the market from a peak that peaked with demand for new vehicles two years ago – 17.55 million in 2016 – to one that is now the peak sales of used vehicles generates.

"It is clear that the Fed is not ready yet, because they have indicated that there will be an extra increase in December, with more expected in 2019," said Smoke.

The Trump government's proposals to increase tariffs for light vehicle imports could also hamper sales if they are imported.

Business prospects

In anticipation of today's reports, it was expected that every major car manufacturer except Fiat Chrysler and VW-Audi would publish the sale in September, based on the Bloomberg analyst research.

The volume is expected to drop 14 percent at General Motors, 9.1 percent at Ford Motor Co., 6.7 percent at Toyota Motor Corp., 4.1 percent at Honda Motor Co., 20 percent at Nissan Motor Co. and 6.5 percent at Hyundai-Kia. Turnover is expected to rise by 8 percent at FCA US and 0.4 percent at VW-Audi, according to Bloomberg's research.

spiffs

Average stimulus expenditures per new vehicle in the first few weeks of September were $ 3,910, down from $ 4,061 in the same period last year, J.D. Power. ALG projects The average incentive expenditures per unit fell by $ 100 to $ 3,785 in September and the ratio between incentive spending and average transaction prices is expected to be 11.3 percent, compared to 11.9 percent a year ago. Of the major car manufacturers, the Detroit 3 remain the biggest sellers in incentives, showing ALG estimates. (See chart below.)

Opportunities, ends

    The average transaction price for new vehicles was $ 32,003, a record per month, according to J.D. Power. The previous high for September – $ 31,543 – was set last year.
    September 2018 had 25 sales days, one less than in September 2017.
    Edmunds says the average down payment for a new vehicle last month amounted to $ 4,198, compared with $ 3,817 in September 2017 and $ 3,555 five years ago.
    The availability of zero percent financial loans dropped to 5.6 percent compared to 10.1 percent in September 2017, hitting the lowest level in September since 2005, Edmunds says.
    Light trucks accounted for 69 percent of retail sales in new vehicles through September 23 – the highest level ever in September – and marked the 27th consecutive month above 60 percent, according to J.D. Power.
    ALG estimates that the average transaction price for a new light vehicle in September was $ 33,436, an increase of 2.3 percent compared to a year ago.
    Days to reverse, the average number of days a new vehicle was on a dealer's lot before being sold to a retail customer was 69 days until 23 September, six days after September 2017, Power said.
    Fleet shipments are expected to reach 257,800 units in September, an increase of 0.8 percent compared to September 2017, says Power. The fleet volume is expected to account for 18 percent of the total sales of light vehicles, or just as compared to last year.

"The market for new vehicles is being challenged by affordability, and ironically, the most affordable and most popular vehicles are being imported and are facing the threat of new tariffs that will push their prices higher."

– Jonathan Smoke, chief economist for Cox Automotive

"The trickle-down effect of increased interest rates began to hit auto sellers in September, while the prices of new vehicles continue to rise, the favorable credit supply is growing more and more difficult.The purchase conditions are much less suitable for consumers than before, which could be a shock buyers who come back on the market for the first time in a few years. "

– Jeremy Acevedo, manager of industry analysis of Edmunds.

"Robust new industrial sales, a slight decline in incentive spending and rising transaction prices are all indicators that point to a resilient industry."

– Oliver Strauss, chief economist for ALG

"Although sales are expected to decline in September, average transaction prices remained strong, at 2 percent year-on-year." As interest rates rise and the manufacturers' incentives reach a healthy level, thanks to tighter production, monthly payments for consumers Immediately affected If gas prices remain high in the fourth quarter, affordability is likely to be a concern for new car buyers and this may lead to fewer sales at the end of the year. "

– Tim Fleming, analyst for Kelley Blue Book

Expenses of September premiums for the US

ManufacturerForecast September 2018September 2017August 2018Percentage change compared to September 2017Percentage change compared to August 2018BMW (BMW, Mini)$ 5,431 $ 5,273 $ 5.4053% 0.5%Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart)$ 5,775 $ 5,002 $ 5,85515.5% -1.4%FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat)$ 4,655 $ 4,635 $ 4,5940.5% 1.3%Ford (Ford, Lincoln)$ 4,784 $ 4,473 $ 4,7367% 1%GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC)$ 4,716 $ 5,215 $ 4,688-9.6% 0.6%Honda (Acura, Honda)$ 1,980 $ 1,958 $ 1,9471.1% 1.7%Hyundai$ 2,984 $ 2,843 $ 2.9625% 0.8%Kia$ 3,973 $ 3,883 $ 3,9662.3% 0.2%Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti)$ 4,271 $ 4,471 $ 4,365-4.5% -2.2%Subaru$ 1,548 $ 1,077 $ 1,50743.7% 2.7%Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota)$ 2,432 $ 2,783 $ 2,568-12.6% -5.3%Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen) $ 3,762 $ 3,657 $ 3.7472.9% 0.4%Industry$ 3,785 $ 3,885 $ 3,758-2.6% 0.7% Source: ALG